Methodology

ClearTake is designed to help understand how the AI economy behaves as a system.

Rather than treating AI as a traditional market sector, ClearTake models AI as a value chain that spans multiple industries, balance sheets, and economic roles. The methodology focuses on structure, flow, and concentration, not on narratives or stock picking.

AI as a Value Chain, Not a Sector

AI does not operate like a single sector such as “Technology” or “Industrials.” Its economics unfold across a moving supply chain:

  • Physical compute and infrastructure
  • Software platforms and tooling
  • Applications that embed AI into real workflows

ClearTake therefore analyzes AI through a fixed value-chain model, allowing signals to be interpreted as movements through the system rather than sector rotation.

Universe Definition: AI Value Chain US-50

All indicators are built on a consistent universe: AI Value Chain US-50.

  • Approximately 50 US-listed companies
  • Selected based on material economic exposure to AI
  • Companies are assigned to a single primary value-chain layer
  • The universe is reviewed periodically, not rebalanced for performance

This fixed universe ensures that changes in indicators reflect market dynamics, not shifting constituents.

Value-Chain Layers

Each company is mapped to one of three layers:

  • Compute Semiconductors, infrastructure, and physical constraints that enable AI workloads.

  • Platform Cloud providers, AI models, developer tools, and orchestration layers.

  • Application Companies embedding AI into products, services, and end-user workflows.

Each layer responds differently to capital flows, expectations, and fundamentals. Separating them allows ClearTake to detect internal imbalances that are invisible at the aggregate level.

Core Indicators

ClearTake currently publishes four complementary artifacts. Each answers a different question about the AI economy.

AI Value Chain US-50

What it measures

The aggregate return of the AI value-chain universe over time.

What it shows

Overall performance of AI-exposed companies as a system, independent of traditional sector classifications.

This index acts as the baseline reference for all other indicators.

AI Value Chain US-50 · Layer Breakdown

What it measures

The relative contribution of each value-chain layer to total performance.

What it shows

  • Which layers are leading or lagging
  • Rotation within the AI economy
  • Whether performance is infrastructure-led, platform-led, or application-led

This replaces narrative explanations with observable structure.

AI Bubble Index

What it measures

The degree of price pressure and valuation stress within each value-chain layer.

The index combines multiple signals, including:

  • Valuation levels
  • Valuation acceleration
  • Price momentum
  • Divergence from fundamentals

What it shows

The Bubble Index is not a prediction tool. It highlights fragility, not timing.

Higher readings indicate increasing sensitivity to shocks rather than an imminent reversal.

AI Return Concentration Index

What it measures

How much of total AI value-chain performance is driven by a small number of companies.

What it shows

  • High concentration → dependency risk and narrow leadership
  • Low concentration → broader participation and healthier diffusion

This indicator helps distinguish between systemic strength and performance driven by a few dominant names.

Time Behavior and Interpretation

  • Indicators are calculated on a regular cadence using a consistent historical framework
  • Designed for trend analysis, not short-term trading
  • Historical series are preserved to observe regime changes over time

ClearTake emphasizes direction, structure, and pressure, not point forecasts.

Design Principle

Each indicator is intentionally incomplete on its own.

Insight emerges from reading them together: performance, structure, pressure, and concentration.

That is the core philosophy behind ClearTake.